Tuesday, January 03, 2006

China, India and Demography - Take 2

In a recent post Harsh Pant pointed to China's demographic constraints and asked what was known about India. In this regard it is useful to look at an analysis by Nicholas Eberstadt whose punch line with regard to India is that while the north (think Bihar) will remain young the south (think Kerala) will not. He notes that this means that the young will come from states with lower socio-economic indicators, especially educational ones. In that last regard, I would like to point to the interesting piece by Sebastian Mallaby which notes that educational progress in India might be underestimated in current projections thanks to market successes. My own, anecdotal, sense is that Mallaby is on to something.

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